Fire Alarm Companies

A few years ago, my buddy, Robert Sawyer postulated, because we now computers as an important tool for research, Moore's Law, academic performance is considered good.

He began to assume a simple postulate that in the first decade of the 21st Century, we have already achieved so much scientific progress, as we in the entire 20 Amazing-century discoveries in astronomy, paleontology, materials, medicine, robotics, etc. achieved

Now let's try a thought experiment. If we assume Moore's law and apply it, that the rate of scientific progress at the same rate as processing power, which we doubled to research, then we can project that we probably get a whole 20th Century's worth of scientific progress in 5 years by 2015th Since the rate of doubling further, we will reach a century of work in 2.5 years, then 1.25 years, 7.5 months, 3 months and 3 weeks, then a smidge less than two months, one month, two weeks, 1 week, 3.5 days, 1.75 days, and if you ignore Zeno's paradox, by the end of 2020 we will accomplish a century's worth of research every day, and two weeks later, every second. And then ...?

Will that be when The Singularity occurs?

In mathematics, a singularity is a point where a function displays extreme behavior. The Singularity , As of Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil is defined, will appear with the technological super-intelligence establishment. Such a world can not predict, because us poor people today not able to understand what you want to super-smart business and how they then act to achieve their goals. (Well, okay, but life has a basic rule. Survival with this and everything else follows startup.)

It may be that nothing more than a technological singularity "Rapture" is - an event of some interest to those who believe in it, but not necessarily one to expect that the rest of us. In October of 1951 The Magazine of Fantasy Science Fiction published a story by Richard Deming called "The Shape Of Things That Came." In this story, a young reporter on his uncle's time-nightgown (which was a dumb idea, he has used a time-belt), travels to 1900 to 1950. When he returns, he writes about what he has seen - highways and cities full of cars, high giant aircraft traveling coast to coast, skyscrapers sixty and eighty and a hundred floors, phones everywhere, radio, moving images with color and sound, television broadcasts in every house, but his editor rejected the story because of its essential credibility. According to:.. "Yes, all these things certainly sometime in the distant future, but not in 50 years What is impossible to believe that time many of the people in your story are already born, the human mind can not. with so much change in one lifetime deal. "

Nuclear power, organ transplants, multiple trips to the moon, solar panels, communications satellites, space probes, an international space station has been published in the fifty years since this story first, we have never seen more amazing changes in our science and technology, Supersonic Jets, genetically modified crops, digital information technology, the widespread use of lasers for the transmission and storage of information (as well as for teasing cats), globally connected mobile phones, personal computers of all sizes and a huge library of applications, the incredible range and versatility of the Internet , video games (of course), Viagra, and so much more.

So maybe, just maybe, when and if The Singularity occurs, there is only one thing that people walk in, and then complain about because that is one of the things that machines still can not do. For most of us are technological progress, a possibility that fundamental laziness of species we are looking for an easier way to get the job address. Good, fast, cheap, we are pleased with every two out of three.

We might made a hint about what happened last century. The two inventions that have the greatest influence on the 21 Century, had arrived in the second half of the microchip and the laser. To a large extent they were unexpected and often unpredictable. The laser was a laboratory curiosity for decades. And were made even after the first micro-chip industry still does not recognize the true potential until a couple of guys in a garage showed them what could be a microchip to do it.

It is very likely that today's laboratory curiosities opportunities that represent our global reorganization. Here are a few things have to be respected. (We will check back in a few years and see if my crystal ball needs recalibration.)

Graphene

First it was Bucky balls, then Bucky tubes, now being rolled out Bucky tubes in flat sheets, only one atom thick. Already touted as the miracle material of the future, graphene is not just a laboratory curiosity, because nobody knows how to produce it in industrial quantities, but could be efficiently produced graphs if it was the plastic of the 21 Century. A lot of people think the problem is solvable.

Researchers at IBM have already demonstrated high-speed circuits on a substrate graph. What happens when we move from TERAHERTZES gigahertz processors processors? Yes, everything we are doing now faster, effective immediately, but as the gigahertz CPU made speech recognition and photo editing and video editing practice, what other labor-intensive tasks, the TERAHERTZES CPU to be able, without having to sweat to ? handle Add the parallel processing, and we're talking hella flops.

But more than that, graphene has unbelievable physical strength. Researchers at Columbia University have found that graphene is the strongest material ever measured, about 200 times stronger than steel. Quote: "It would be an elephant, balanced on a pencil, to break through a sheet of graphene the thickness of Saran Wrap." Other scientists have several graphene sheets into a paper-like form, the six times lighter than steel, stacked two times harder, has 10 times the tensile strength and 13-fold higher bending stiffness.

Maybe someday layered graph in cars, airplanes, trains, buses, ships, robots, perhaps even buildings can be used. The weight savings alone provide significant fuel economy and the increased strength greater structural integrity and safety will be too. It could also show themselves in military armor. Maybe we'll see them in light garden furniture or sturdy laptop shells or used as a roll bar in a future generation of hybrids.

The forecasts for graphs have not yet been tested by reality, but if graph is really a wonder material, it will have an enormous impact on the global infrastructure.

Super-Cable

The orbital lift the "beanpole", was a popular science-fiction idea, first seen in novels by Arthur C. Clarke and Charles Sheffield, but also appear to books by other authors as well ( The Fountains Of Paradiseby Arthur C. Clarke, The bridge between worlds by Charles Sheffield, Friday by Robert A. Heinlein, Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson, and Jumping Off The Planet by David Gerrold). A cable drop from orbit and cause elevators up and down, thereby reducing the cost of the orbital insertion of at least one order of magnitude. It may be that cable graph is the miracle material that can be us in building one, but one will need a cable orbital elevator 40,000 miles long, almost enough to wrap around the earth twice, and that requires production on a scale never tried. And right now, graphene is still a long way from "proof-of-concept".

Considering the cost of boosting even a single pound into orbit, such a cable will have to be manufactured in space and that means the factory to build it will also have to be built in space. At the moment, we can't afford to lift that much weight out of the gravity well. It could be a trillion dollar investment. And the recovery of that cost could take generations. The economics of an orbital elevator, as well as the physics, are enormous challenges. Overall, the sheer outlandishness of the idea may be one of the reasons why it hasn't captured the public imagination, so it may be that launch catapults (or some other technology) will be more cost-effective in the meantime. A practical beanstalk doesn't seem likely in the foreseeable future—but remember that as late as 1960, most futurists (science fiction writers) still thought that the first moon landing wouldn't occur until sometime in the 90's, so maybe we could be similarly surprised.

Is much more likely to be the first applications of super-satellite or cable in the room probably even whirling bolos hitting vehicles and probes connected in the direction of the other planets, but the actual impact on the earth long before that.

Research in super-cord ground side produce some surprising applications, such as a super-long suspension bridge over the Straits of Gibraltar, or perhaps as unbreakable tethering of energy-producing jet stream dragon, and certainly new opportunities in architectural-like pauses To create super-tent of graphene material into a giant weather-resistant plant. Changing the properties of a single element in the equation of industrial engineering to create opportunities that are not immediately in sight, but always take care of the fact, inevitable.

Robots

Robots: Already suspended with pop stars.

Robots are a simple prediction. Karel Capek created to play the word "robot" in 1921, "Rossum's Universal Robots" and many other science fiction writers began toying with the idea almost immediately, especially Isaac Asimov. Robot with a familiar size in many science fiction movies, sometimes as good guys, sometimes not. Engineers were concerned about the mechanics of robotics, long before Walt Disney animatronic Lincoln put on display for the 1964-65 World's Fair in New York, but it was not up to the brain, muscles and power supplies were small enough and efficient enough that we begin could be an evolutionary timeline project. A quick rummage through YouTube shows that all the necessary parts are finally Falling into Place.

A company can demonstrate a robot that displays on foot and can run even one other a robot face with a variety of forms of expression, shows a third of a robot to pick up and manipulate objects, to catch balls and juggle them. Still other companies are in intelligence engines that can work to understand complex language tasks. Nuance speech recognition already sold quite well, and Google has a car that can drive itself. IBM has a computer that can win on Jeopardy. And beyond are many other companies to develop smaller, more efficient engines and improved battery technology. All these pieces are the synergistic components of a much larger whole.

What is the final product will look like, but still a work in progress. We can imagine the robot is at work in the home, business, construction, entertainment, in the emergency services, and safe even for military applications. But the first humanoid robot are probably simple, stupid, and disappointing, they will also be expensive. The people they are as a good idea to see, but not in a position to live up to promises and expectations. Vista on the legs.

Nevertheless, robots are inevitable. Be the first widespread use of robots in theme parks. Disneyland and Universal use robotic creatures such as dinosaurs and giants and dwarfs to portray. You can expect to see robotic dancer in music videos, but the real breakthrough occurs when robots start in on more mundane tasks. We will see them as a bartender or assistant for the sick and elderly. Robots could work in hotels-you try to change the bed linen, mattresses, lift twenty or thirty per day. At that point, a robot is cheaper than hiring a person, it is inevitable. The labor market changes when whole classes of people could become redundant workers.

And do not forget Gerrold's umpteenth Act: What to invent whatever technology the people, people will find a way, that same technology used for sex. Sun robot sex partners are also inevitable in brothels, rented for a night, or offered for sale. (There was a young man from Racine, who invented a screwing machine. Could concave or convex, there are both sexes, entertaining in-between.) Because robots do not get headaches. It is also possible that at some point, we are the robots as real-world use avatars, surrogates, sending them out into the world to run errands for us, with remote control is available where needed.

Where robots will probably show its main value is in dangerous situations. Robots will be used for military reconnaissance, defusing the bombs, and perhaps someday even for assault duties. Robots will certainly be used for the handling of hazardous materials and toxic waste cleanup. And I can even imagine robots patiently and methodically cleaning up oil spills and even emergency cleaning seals and seabirds.

The first robot is likely to start, which is up before this decade is over. (Maybe Apple will market the iRobot.) As soon as the first sugar-rush wears off, that's when we begin to discover what we really want robots to do for us.

Flying Cars

Beginning in the early fifties began Futurists tell us that there were flying cars and flat-screen TV is only 10 years away. We have finally affordable flat-screen TVs in 2005. We do not have flying cars, and it is unlikely we will ever be.

First of all, a flying car is not cost effective. Have you checked gas prices lately? A flying car has to do a lot of work just to stay air. What kind of gas mileage are you going with a flying car?

Second? It is impractical. Do you have room in your driveway for a place to land? And there is a place to land at your destination? See where you go, that the claims have a flying car? The supermarket? Picking up the kids from school? Any trip less than thirty or forty miles is probably more trouble than it's worth. Oh, and by the way, do you have a pilot's license? You will probably need. And you'll have to learn where all the local no-fly zones. Can you not fly into the path of an Airbus.

Third, when you consider how most people drive, and most people keep their cars, do you really want them to pilot their cars sky overhead? Given the way some people use their cars for street racing and dangerous the way other people think get involved road rage duels, you need really want to go overhead? Given the way some people throw trash out the window, you want above ? And finally, we really need another source of noise and pollution in the air?

And all of the above assumes that the technical problems can be solved. The Moller Sky Car has under development, for how long? Since 1974. And it's still "just a few years away." (Critics say that they still resolve to considerable noise and stability problems.)

Flying is not the same as the steering and each goodPilot will tell you that it's a different mentality, not just a set of skills, but a Discipline . Including a discipline maintenance. Considering how most people do discipline…uh, no, I just don't see this one happening any time soon. Okay, maybe eventually on a small scale, maybe as flying taxis from local hub to local hub, maybe—but as a mass-production item? Not likely. I think that most people will probably invest in more cost-effective travel.

Bio-fabbing

Imagine a printer that operates in three dimensions, building up solid objects a layer at a time. Such printers exist and are used for making prototypes and models. Depending on what kind of material can be layered and the resolution of the printer, it might be possible to print up objects as mundane as toasters or as rare as star sapphires. (We might not have to wait for Robby the Robot to crystallize the gems.)

But more importantly, we are on the threshold of being able to produce living tissue. The researchers have already proven that they live cells on a collagen framework to print specific tissues and even whole organs functioning to create. We might finally be able to grow our own replacement organs in the laboratory skin, heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, ears, hands, feet, arms, legs and wait for some unlucky riders to lose an encounter with an SUV . We could see this happen within ten years. Could we grow whole new body ...? We do not know until we get there, but once upon a time a heart transplant was unthinkable to.

Moreover, it was able to print living tissue revolutionize agriculture. Why breed a whole cow, if you have a steak in a Bio-fab plant can grow? Once the process is completed and the product is approved for human consumption, could be a manufactured bio-engineered fillet cheaper, safer and healthier than meat on the old fashioned way. And much more human. But why stop at Steak? We could grow every cut of meat we wanted, and probably far more economical than bringing up a whole animal. Want something fresh dolphin or whale meat? Elephant? Panda? (Even cannibals might be able to legally ... no matter.)

Of course, we would still maintain herds of all kinds for the genetic diversity, but we would not need to destroy the rain forests of the world to create more grazing land for cattle more to feed the world's growing appetite for meat. This is a snap. It is not only a growth industry, there is a growthIndustry. As the world population continues to grow, can animal industries are our only hope for avoiding a food crisis. We can see this before 2020.

Universal Smart-Tech

Internet Protocol Version 6 is already there. We switch now. Before IPV6 Internet addresses were limited to 32 bits. Under IPv6, Internet addresses are 128 bits. This means that it is now 2128 possible Internet addresses (340 undecillion ) Or, in plain terms "umpty hella-gazillion" enough so that every living human on the planet could have 1028 * 5 separate and specific domains.

What this means in practice is that each Thing on the planet worth anything, manufactured, grown up, discovered, studied, observed, or born , can have its own web address and associated locater-chip. Can't find your car keys? Just ask your phone where they are. Want to know where your steak came from, what lab it was grown in, what nutrients were in the tank, and who inspected it? That's available too, ask your phone.

Your car will be able to drive yourself, so you can talk on the phone, a book, watch TV or read, it is maintained with the vehicles around and inform them when they get to adapt to change lanes must, and all cars security clearances. Would you know where your teenager is at 12:30 clock? You will be able to easily track his position, and when he is out of street-racing, you are evidence that to have.

Want to know how much money is in your wallet? Ask your phone. Why are there missing twenty? Your phone will tell you that one of the twenties was removed from his wallet while you were in the shower, and is currently in my pocket Her 16-year-old son. Do you want him to come home now? Tell the car to bring him safely home.

Had your wallet stolen? Ask your phone to alert the police. The thief will be picked up shortly. Had your car stolen and a chop shop? The police will know where each piece went on there.

Just bought insurance and need to take your property for a physical inventory adjustment of interest rates? Ask your phone. You can view a list of everything you own, if you bought it, how much you pay, what it is worth now and what would be the replacement cost in case of fire, flood, earthquake, tornado or asteroid impact.

Can not find your phone? Questions to ask the refrigerator.

But wait, it gets better. People will also be chopped, such as dogs, cats and cattle. Can not remember the names of the fallen little restaurant in New York? No problem, your personal history stored in the cloud. We can remember it for you wholesale. Sign up for Apple's iMemory service.

Catching rapists, robbers, thieves and murderers will be much easier. The cloud is still lined with a location-tracking service by anyone or not. There will be cameras everywhere. Court proceedings have a whole new level of authenticity standards.

Here's how The Singularitywill happen.

There's this thing called "emergent behavior." It means that complex patterns and events can arise out of relatively simple interactions. One ant is one ant, but a whole colony of ants behaves like a gigantic multi-cellular organism—that's emergent behavior. One car slows down at a curve in the highway at five in the morning, it's one car—but twelve hours later, when there are hundreds of cars on the same highway, you get a standing wave in the traffic flow, a wave that actually travels backward from the source—that's emergent behavior. One person goes to the bathroom and flushes the toilet, no problem—but in the early days of television, when I Love Lucy broke for a commercial and a million New Yorkers all went to the bathroom all at the same time, the reservoir levels visibly lowered—that's emergent behavior.

If the whole world is in a massive network of chairs and trash cans and lawn mowers and refrigerators and cars and streetlights and smartphones and supermarket packages and pants and skirts, underwear and even shoes and socks (no more lost socks!)-When connected, the All the world's total in a global network of connections immersed, as well as dollar bills are being monitored for their journeys through the economy, it is emergent behavior .

All these chips have a single software-specific features. Their T-shirts will say, the washing machine, as they should be washed. Their frozen dinners tell the microwave how long it must be cooked. Your shoes will tell you if they need to re-soles. Their internal Monitors at diabetes and gout and heart disease to warn. The restaurant menu will advise you on your healthiest choices.

All of these data, not just you everyone's—will get sucked into the cloud, massaged, shared, digested, fiddled and diddled, jiggled and juggled, sorted and ported, creating the most accurate real-time census possible. Trends of all kinds—social, political, economic, cultural, biological—will be recognized first by the cloud and responded to even before humans are aware. The buying habits of millions will tell industry just how many boxes of Cheerios to produce and how many Kinects to manufacture. A super-intelligent cloud will advise producers whether or not it's cost-effective to produce. Before you go shopping for a car or a house or even a new TV, your phone will let you know if you can really afford it. And even more personal, your health-care will be automatically triaged based on the availability of doctors and based on your previous record of cooperation with preventive medicine.

The super-intelligent will not cloud the consciousness, as we understand it. But when Marvin Minsky's theory ( Society Of Mind By Marvin Minsky) is correct-that sentience occurs as a product of several interconnected sub-programs, then finally the super-intelligent cloud begins, not only as a monitor of all data flowing through it function, but as a mentor as well.

The Singularity-as I see it, is all the best and worst qualities of all the species that produced it inherit. It is developed in order to survive as a collection of software mechanisms to serve our basic desires and needs come, but it will develop . And because the main aim of life to survive, he will most likely develop in a symbiotic consciousness for humanity. And if that happens, then there is a built-in tendency to give us our best work.

We'll see. It will happen in our lives.